Retail Update September 1, 2013

I'm all about taking short cuts..... So while I would love to elaborate on all the exciting progress we've made in recent retail growth, I'll instead provide the following email I sent to an area representative for Harbor Freight Tools, as inspired by Mike Hernandez in our Laveen FB group. The only major development that comes to mind that I missed in this email is the opening of Sinbad's Grocery, just outside Laveen in SoMo (27th Ave. & Baseline) -- go check it out on a weekend, when they have huge spreads of prepared Middle Eastern food available for take-out or (standing) dine-in. We also just got Chipotle and Barro's Pizza, both near Fry's at 51st Ave. & Baseline, so we are finally getting more dining options!

Without further ado, here goes (please let me know what I might have missed):

To: Chris Malherbe

cmalherbe@ngkf.com

(405) 306-7774
http://www.harborfreight.com/real-estate.html

As a former regional director for Choice Hotels International, I know how challenging it can be to manage a large territory and constantly keep up with every corner of every market (mine was essentially "the West" at one point). Therefore, I hope you are as receptive to local insight as I always was in that role, especially if it makes your job a little easier in identifying ideal submarkets with solid locations available. So I have one for you: 

Laveen Village Center, NWC of 35th Ave. & Baseline

Managed by Hinkson Company, LLC

Property Flier: http://hinksoncompany.com/13_0506_laveen_vlg_marketing.pdf

Space available: 15,600 sq ft in-line with monument signage in a newer shopping center

Other major tenants: Big 5, 99 Cents Only, Big Lots, Circle K, Wendy's (just announced), and several local businesses

Key demographics (from property flier): 

1 Mile: 10,685 population, $68,915 avg income

3 Mile: 60,508 population, $72,206 avg income

5 Mile: 146,657 population, $61,764 avg income

Traffic (from property flier):

Baseline Road  29,275 CPD

35th Avenue 17,813 CPD

More about the area:

• Proven demand: Home Depot located 2 miles west at 51st Ave. & Baseline, Lowe's located 2 miles east at 19th Ave. & Baseline.
• 1, 3, 5-mile radii can be misleading; as you can see from the street/freeway configuration and the area's population growth, There is a rather large residential population located to the south and west (85339 ZIP) that travels Baseline Rd. for their daily commute, many of whom turn north on 35th Avenue or 19th Avenue, toward downtown and the large government complex located directly north-northeast of this site.
• Large population to the east in ZIPs 85041, 85042, 85040 may also be drawn to this location.
• Large industrial area to the north and interspersed ranch/agricultural properties indicates significant likelihood that lifestyle/psychographic analysis will yield a sizable DIY market, where Harbor Freight will likely thrive.
• C-A-L Ranch is currently opening a location 1 mile north (35th Ave. and Southern) to reach a similar demographic. 
• This site has direct visibility to the large municipal area directly across the street: park, library, golf course, and school(s); this means great weekday and weekend traffic/visibility

Please let me know if you have any additional questions about the area. I am passionate about this part of town and involved with a great group of like-minded volunteers who come from professional backgrounds and are able to help provide more contextual area information, (besides that readily available to you through ESRI and CoStar reports). This could be helpful if your client, Harbor Freight, decides to pursue this option further. I think it's a slam dunk for you, and this shopping center's owner/manager are working to get deals done quickly, so please do look into it as soon as possible. 

Best regards,

Patrick T. Brennan

@Home Properties and Management

http://www.patrickbrennan.us
Direct | 480.559.9429
Fax | 602.467.3165

Survey Results Are In

No, not that survey.... You can view a recent press release for the "Let's Build the 202" survey, conducted by HighGround, right here (and read more about the group in my last blog post).... But I'm talking about the informal little community survey that so many members of our community FB group completed last week. Thank you again to everyone who responded.

So did we ask our 60 respondents about the Loop 202, or what? Ha, of course we did! But you'll have to get to know us a little bit before we tell you our deepest feelings about the freeway, so here goes:

Who Took the Survey?

Given that 51st Avenue and Baseline serves as a sort of epicenter for commercial activity in Laveen, we checked our sampling by asking respondents to identify where they lived, based on the four quadrants that extend from this intersection and the streets that form it. Here's our result:

We then wanted to know where people tend to work, and therefore where they tend to commute each day. Here's our result:

*Other = mostly retired or "all over" (or some variation)

Then there are those standard survey questions, like how much do you make, what is your age, and are you a renter or homeowner:

What is Laveen Thinking?

To begin answering this question, I thought it important to start with a question of how Laveen residents view our community, which should echo how we would like our community to be viewed. Here's how resident's answered the question, "With which of the following geographic areas do you think Laveen is generally most associated?"

*Other = a couple of obvious fake responses, not worth examining

Open essay question: "What do you like most about living in Laveen?" Lots of great responses to this one, but it requires further analysis -- perhaps even it's own blog post. For now, let's just say that the clear winners were proximity to downtown and open spaces (often mentioned in the same response).

"What are the three (3) most important issues facing the Laveen community in the next year? (Note: you must select exactly three)"

*Other = police and housing related issues

 So...... Now Can We Talk about the Loop 202?

Okay, fine! Here's what you've been waiting for: "Do you support the Loop 202 South Mountain Freeway? More info available at http://www.azdot.gov/southmountainfreeway/"

*15 respondents offered varying explanations. Further discussion to follow.

 Conclusions & Summary

This section should more appropriately be titled "More to Come" -- we have made a great start at developing a helpful community profile, but this leads to a need for further discussion and analysis. For starters, a friend pointed out that by only getting 60 or so survey respondents via our FB group (N=780), my sampling might be a little bit flawed. Good point, but this is also helpful info. What I can guess based on my sample size is that I'm allowing a +10% margin of error; but perhaps, more productively, I can learn about our FB group participants by analyzing how they vary from the overall community profile. For instance, I know that our respondents skew high in income and I can guess that they also skew higher than the community for education. Makes sense, since these are the same folks who are most actively discussing community issues via social media.

What I most importantly gained from this survey is a strong reinforcement of how today's high efficacy Laveen residents feel about the freeway (I think that's the correct jargon for smart and involved folks). I can also deduce that Laveen residents generally understand the economic impacts we can expect from the freeway, given the overwhelming support for transportation infrastructure and economic development (*could be a fluke, but I invited people to respond at a time that the 202 discussion was at the forefront). And finally, we have lots more to talk about after making our appearances at the Loop 202 public meeting tomorrow. See you there. Oh, and more to come.... Stay tuned.

Loop 202 News

Here's a message from ADOT Spokesperson, Timothy Tait, offered as a follow-up to concerns from residents after the Local Laveen Summit last month:

At this point, ADOT is awaiting direction from the leaders of the region on how to proceed forward. While a freeway has been proposed up to this point, we recognize that this may change into a different type of roadway. "What" is not decision of ADOT, but of the leaders of the region through the Maricopa Association of Governments. ADOT doesn't plan Valley freeways -- rather, we serve to complete the formal studies, design, construct and maintain the network.

South Mountain does have a long history. ADOT completed the first environmental study in 1988 before regional funding fell short and the freeway was removed from the planned highway network. Through the 2004 vote in Maricopa County, ADOT again received funding to study the South Mountain Freeway in 2006. Like any Environmental Impact Statement for a long, complex project, this study has taken time. At the time we were stopped because of the roadway-configuration debate, the study was on track for release this summer. That, obviously, cannot happen at this time. Any change from the 10-lane freeway concept will require some degree of reanalysis to conform with all federal regulations, since this is a Federal Aid project.

Another take (or two) on this issue:

Mr. Tait's statement above was prompted by emails from two Laveen residents, one of whom has been a member of the community for several decades and the other a more recent addition. Each had a different perspective on why we need to make the Loop 202 freeway a reality in our community.

One of the residents, Mary, moved to Laveen a few years ago (as did I). She did not move to Laveen because of its past heritage, but because of the proximity to downtown Phoenix and availability of nice new homes, golf courses, and the promise of future development. Mary is concerned about Laveen's economic growth and sees the freeway as a way to spur this growth, as well as provide a bypass for the I-10 freeway through Phoenix.

Shelley has been in Laveen since the 1960s and has seen the community grow exponentially in recent years. She does live here for the ranch lifestyle, but sees the freeway as a much needed reliever for all the traffic that our recent growth has brought upon the community. She cites the fact that many "old Laveen" residents share her view, despite the very vocal few who essentially deny our growth trajectory as a reality. She notes that, "Our growth is a fact of life and with it comes the need for better transportation." Furthermore, she points out that we need to get the already busy bypass traffic off of 51st Avenue and onto a freeway.

My take

It's interesting....well, interesting to me at least: I initially thought that I couldn't offer a new perspective to those posted above. But after I drafted my response, I think I came up with something of a judicious and refreshing addition to the discussion (oh please, stop with the flattery). If you have been reading my blog posts, then you already know that I'm something of a "big picture" thinker; in which case my viewpoints will not likely surprise you.

I feel that both Mary and Shelley are correct in their assessments about Laveen's transportation needs. We have experienced significant residential growth in recent years and are poised for even more thanks to our proximity to Phoenix's central business district (and ASU, the airport, Glendale, etc.). Furthermore, we are well positioned to cultivate our ongoing growth into a great new model for a suburban community, building on the plans already hotly debated and settled (hopefully), thanks to groups like the LCRD and the city-county collaboration that resulted in the Southwest Regional Growth Study (see link on the side-bar of this page). Laveen is and always has been a rural community, and our master plan of record would ensure that this remains true as we welcome even more residents and businesses.

At a time that our metropolitan region exemplifies and amplifies the housing crisis affecting our country, people are becoming more selective in their choice of residence because they now have more options than ever. Again and again, research and intuition collide in acknowledging culture and character as some of the toughest qualities to break and some of the most important to people. Therefore, I hope that Laveen will continue growing to provide modern conveniences while maintaining a unique character and proud legacy (note: look to the series of highly critical articles that The Economist published back in 2005-2006 about Phoenix and Scottsdale).

If we don't preserve something of the old Laveen--and build upon projects that celebrate its history--we offer very little to future investors besides proximity to downtown, the airport, or the South Mountain foothills. So, while our master plan helps to preserve Laveen's character, the completion of a local freeway helps connect us to the rest of Phoenix, thus enabling Laveen to better complement all of the other communities that make up this ever-growing city and huge metropolis. So while it provides a much needed local commuter route and a regional bypass, the Loop 202 South Mountain alignment also makes possible such regionally important developments as a hospital, a super-regional shopping center or two, additional office space, and the ancilliary employment that supports the above--all coincidentally slated for Laveen, but benefiting the rest of the region as well.

Conclusion

So what do we need to do? Well, for those of us with our feet firmly planted here, the answer is clear. We need to do what we can to advocate for the continuation of all Loop 202 studies and the eventual completion of the South Mountain Corridor, whether it be a freeway, parkway, or a major thoroughfare by any other name. I'll follow up on this soon, but for now, I would recommend contacting your MAG representatives (political representatives, not staff). Also, make sure you tell your friends to do the same. If you know anyone in Michael Nowakowski or Mary Rose Wilcox's office, then by all means call them. Be the squeaky wheel; you might be surprised at how receptive both offices are.

*If you are the diplomatic type, then please help your pitifully misguided friends and family in Ahwatukee understand that they too should support the Loop 202 South Mountain Freeway. Very few houses stand in the way of the proposed freeway's path, and those that do shouldn't have been built anyhow. Plus, imagine how convenient it will be when our friends at Club West can take advantage of our new retail and hospital, neither of which will likely come to Ahwatukee anytime soon without the freeway.

*And one more thing.... I've heard that Mayor Phil Gordon does not support the freeway. If this is in fact true, then I beg you to convince him otherwise. I think it's absolutely insane that Mr. Gordon would stand on the wrong side of this issue. Even if he prefers the support of Ahwatukee to that of Laveen, I would think he could benefit from the job creation that could come from the Loop 202--both short and long-term.