Thursday, April 23, 2009

And we're back....

After a rather long hiatus, I am pleased to announce the arrival of my son, born last month to Catherine and me, following a long weekend in the hospital. He is our first and we expect that he will inspire us to have a second, third, and so on.

During this break from posting, there's been quite a bit of activity in the old farm fields of Laveen. Most notably, here's what has been observed on the commercial real estate front: MidFirst Bank is a go; LA Fitness is a maybe. Also, there's talk of a hospital, we've seen at least two new specialty businesses open recently, and now Denny's wants in on the action, along with other restaurants. So here's the play-by-play for each intersection:

51st and Baseline
Denny's signed a lease for the space at the westernmost end of the Safeway shopping center. I know, bummer.... I wanted something better, too. But this way, at least we have another option that is poised to successfully demonstrate our pent up demand. Also, Pappa John's has agreed to enter the same shopping center, leaving only two more spaces to fill. Across the street, MidFirst Bank is preparing to break ground, along with yet another fast food restaurant (Yum brands combo concept?) and a strip mall. As for LA Fitness, we have yet to see what will happen; their preferred local developer, Diversified Partners, has closed its doors and left the site's primary developer to negotiate with the gym directly.

51st and Southern
Reportedly, a new running store is opening here this weekend. The Runners Store is having a grand opening celebration, featuring free foot analysis on Saturday.

Dobbins and 63rd
HOSPITAL??? A Tempe-based developer named Habitat Metro has submitted speculative permit requests to attract one of three local hospitals: Banner, John C. Lincoln, or Catholic Healthcare West. None of the hospitals have committed, although they have each allegedly expressed interest on the condition that we build a freeway. To add credibility, there are also rumors floating around about a group of doctors planning to build an office condo development nearby (although they could probably get a great lease rate instead). Here's my concern about this: Habitat Metro has never completed this type of project in the past. Their largest development to date was a residential project in downtown Phoenix. Add to that the outraged claims of one of the property's neighbors that they have no actual plans for a hospital, and you will understand my skepticism.

We all know that it's just a matter of time, but let's not get too excited yet. We can't even get a definitive answer about the freeway, which is absolutely a prerequisite for any type of trauma center to be economically feasible in such an area as Laveen (those things are quite expensive, and we have yet to provide the immediate population density or demonstrated demand for emergency services--despite showing an absolute demand from the broader region). See also the Banner hospital underway in Queen Creek for an indication of their investment appetite at the present time (hint: they say it won't open anytime soon, despite being nearly complete). Let's see what happens with national health care reform and the state budget outlook for infrastructure improvements, and then perhaps I'll change my tune to something more along the lines of, "I'm a Believer."

27th and Southern
Much to my surprise, the small shopping center on the northwest corner is filling up, with the newest tenant selling weight loss shakes and supplements. Their neighbors include a preschool and barber shop.

35th and Baseline & 27th and Baseline
Still empty. That's right, two great new shopping centers that are completely empty. They were speculatively built when rents were considerably higher and better guaranteed. Now, it looks like they can't afford the cost of tenant improvements or the ability to discount leases in order to generate activity. Now, I'd have to guess that it's only a matter of time before one or both of these properties is sold for pennies on the dollar. Let's hope that there's still a bright future in store for both of them and they employ a savvy strategy as the market begins to stabilize.

That's all for now, but stay tuned. I have some exciting news about the upcoming public roundtable event, titled "Local Laveen Summit." Here, we will seek and find answers to many of Laveen's most challenging questions. More info to come soon, I promise.

4 comments:

Jen B. said...

I am a resident of Laveen and happened upon your blog. I am really glad you are back, and I look forward to the updates that your blog provides. I belong to the MOMS Club of Laveen North, and I will pass along your web address to our members. We all care about our community, so your updates will be invaluable. Thanks so much!

Paula said...

Nice blog, thanks for posting this information. As for the LA Fitness, I spoke with a salesman at another location this evening and he said that the Laveen club is next in line to be built. Apparently they were deciding between Laveen and Goodyear before, and went with Goodyear based on the higher population at the time. He believes ours will be open within the next year!

Mike Lee said...

I called the developer on the sign at 51st and baseline and asked them what they are building... he said, "LA Fitness, and it's about 180 days to build". Finally!

Patrick said...

Mike, you scooped me! I met with the developer a couple of days ago and plan to post this information in an update, but I'm a little backlogged with info about the BBQ and other things. But thank you very much for staying on it. And btw, the developer, Terrazona, is one of my favorite commercial residents of Laveen right now (as in, they are playing a very active role in the community). I'll explain more later.